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An Ethanol Outlook for 2008

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Ethanol & Biofuels Asia 2008
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Published on: Monday January 14th, 2008

The beginning of a new year traditionally animates to take stock of the outgoing year and to reflect on chances and challenges the coming year might bring. This is also true for the European bioethanol fuel industry turning the page of a turbulent year 2007: After a head start in form of the encouraging decision of the European Spring Council to introduce a 10% obligation for biofuel use, high hopes have been slightly dampened by soaring raw material prices that put much pressure on this young industry and even forced some players to temporarily halt their production. This is particular sour in a time that the crude oil price almost reached US*$ 100 bbl.

So what will the year 2008 bring for our industry? Let’s have a look at the most pressing issues.

Legislation
To start with, legislation plays an important role in the development of the EU bioethanol fuel market. 2008 awaits the industry with two major pieces of legislation: Firstly, the Commission is to publish its proposal on a Renewable Energies Directive that will replace the existing Biofuels Directive on January 23. Key element is the (likely) introduction of a binding biofuels target of 10% by energy content by 2020. Such a decision would mark a strong signal to bioethanol producers, car manufactures and road fuel distributors to prepare for a partly bio-fueled transport sector in the near future.

Secondly, the Fuel Quality Directive is under scrutiny by the European Parliament and the Council. This Directive sets technical standards for transport fuels and needs to be amended in order to allow for higher biofuel blends. The EU decisionmaking bodies Council of Ministers and European Parliament have expressed the will to agree on a common text before mid 2008. However, this could proof difficult as the responsible Parliamentary Committee has proposed a complex and far reaching system on sustainability for road transport fuels. It seems that sustainability is so popular that we might have 2 sets of criteria in 2 different Directives.

Sustainability
After all, sustainability is also linked to the introduction of a binding 10% biofuels target. The requirement of sustainable production of biomass for biofuels will be enforced by a certification scheme. The up-coming Renewable Energies Directive will define the criteria, which will most likely include land use change, preservation of biodiversity and thresholds on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions savings to be achieved. Europe’s ethanol industry fully supports this move provided sustainability criteria will apply to all biomass production regardless its origine and end-use. However, one needs to bear in mind that European farmers already today comply with the most rigorous standards on sustainable farming globally. eBIO is confident that this will be acknowledged by applying cross-compliance rules to verify the fulfillment of the land use change and biodiversity criteria. When it comes to the GHG saving calculation tool we will keep a sharp eye on whether it will be workable and fair. Furthermore, eBIO will underline strongly the contribution home-grown biofuels can deliver in raising energy independence and security. Biofuels should not be just a tool to deliver GHG savings.

Trade
In 2007 the EU will have imported roughly 800 mln litres* of ethanol for the fuel stream – that equals more than one third of total EU-production* from Brazil only. And the trend is still pointing up-wards. The number shows, that Europe is already today the continent, which is very open to biofuel imports if not the most open one in the world. The EU allows duty free ethanol access from the least developed countries (LDC), countries belonging to the African, Caribbean and Pacific group of states (ACP) and states falling under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP+). A total suppression of import duties is thus not only unnecessary, but would even harm the development of those regions as well as the European agricultural and industrial sector. Replacing all our fuel ethanol needs by imports would undermine the security of supply goal as well as sustainability objectives. Unrestrained expansion from production in Third countries could after all result in unwanted environmental effects. eBIO therefore would like to see a coherent European import policy in 2008 to close existing loopholes and thus to pave the way for a strong domestic industry. Part of this policy needs to be the introduction of a single tariff line for all ethanol imported for fuel use.

Feedstock availability
The year 2007 was marked by high grain prices caused by strong increased demand in Asia, very poor weather conditions in many grain exporting countries and a strong increase in speculation with soft commodities. These higher prices also triggered an emotional debate on the impact of biofuel product and food availability and prices. Ironically, the first that fell victim of these high grain prices was the biofuel industry itself as it squeezed profitability margins in the bioethanol sector substantially. As a reaction on this price development the European Union decided to abolish for at least one year the set aside obligation, which until the early Nineties subsidized non-production. The expected extra yield of certainly more than 10 mio tonnes will have a positive effect on the overheated cereals market in 2008 and is going to ease the situation of many European ethanol producers. Furthermore, eBIO expects that the promotion of bioethanol will give a new incentive to European farmers to adapt their production to the new market realities. Increased yields, rationalized production processes and a market-based agricultural business will secure food and fuel supply for the decades to come.

For additional information contact:
European Bioethanol Fuel Association (eBIO)
Ms Gloria Gaupmann, Assistant Secretary General


Biography


Name Robert Vierhout
Function Secretary General
Organisation eBIO
Nationality NL
 
Career Chronology:
eBio
2005 > Secretary General
European Affairs Management
1997 > Founder
Deloitt & Touche
1992-1997 Senior Consultant Public Affairs

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