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Published on: Monday October 15th 2007
Market Developments
So what can we expect from the cellulosic ethanol industry in Europe in the years to come? “Three developments are key to that question. First of all, what will oil do? This development is very important for the future of our industry. I can assure you, if oil prices go to or over $100/barrel, every country will start to worry about where to get oil and fuel. On the other hand, if oil would return to $40/barrel, nobody cares anymore. The second development, which is to some extent linked to the first, is when will cellulosic ethanol become economically viable? Technology is developing, as is the cultivation of various feedstock. But the question is more complex as the meaning of economically viable is ambiguous. Viable relative to ethanol, to oil, to your competitors? There are many variables that can change this, but we are convinced this could happen in a relatively short period. Otherwise, we wouldn’t plan to build a 200 million litres per year plant. The third development is ‘who will supply the market?’. Again, this is related to government policy. The European ethanol industry is not capable to fully compete on price with the Brazilian industry for at least the next 5 years or so. So for the industry to mature, we have to strike the right balance between imports and ‘domestic’ production.”
“We are confident that the development of oil prices and production cost levels will be in our favour, otherwise we wouldn’t have started in this business. This market will develop in the next few years, of that I’m sure. I’m just wondering whose going to supply it.”
© Ethanol Statistics 2008
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